Everything the system does, explained like you're 14 — because jargon sucks.
You have 3 robot traders that watch the stock market every day and pretend to buy and sell things with fake money ($10,000 paper money). They never use real money.
They're like 3 friends who disagree on what to buy. You want to see which friend is right.
What he does: Buys whatever went up the most in the last 12 months. That's it.
Plain English: "What's been winning? Buy that. Keep buying it until it stops winning."
Why he exists: Academic research says this simple strategy beats most professional fund managers over 10+ years.
Day 1 trade: Bought USO (oil fund) at $144 — it went up 97% in the last year. Makes sense.
What he does: Does the same as Robot A, but checks 4 extra things before buying:
1. RSI — is it overbought? (tired, due for a break)
2. Volume — is there enough trading activity to trust the move?
3. Candlestick patterns — does the daily chart show warning signs?
4. Support/Resistance — is it too high above its normal range?
Plain English: "That's been going up for a year? Let me check if it's a real move or a trap."
Day 1 trade: Robot A wanted USO, but Robot B said NO because the volume was too low (not enough people trading it = unreliable move). So he bought SLV (silver) instead at $59.90.
What he does: Ignores momentum entirely. Just looks at chart patterns and technical signals:
Plain English: "I don't care what happened last year. I look at the picture the chart is painting right now."
Day 1 trade: Bought CPER (copper) at $41.02 because the Bollinger Bands squeezed then broke upward, and MACD crossed.
| Term | Definition | Example |
|---|---|---|
| **Ticker** | Short code for a stock/fund | SPY = S&P 500, QQQ = Nasdaq, GLD = Gold, USO = Oil |
| **ETF** | A fund that tracks something (like gold or oil) | You buy USO, you basically own oil |
| **Buy and hold** | Buy something and never sell it | The laziest strategy |
| **Bull market** | Market going up | Everything green |
| **Bear market** | Market going down | Everything red |
| Term | Definition | Example |
|---|---|---|
| **Momentum** | How much something went up or down over a period | +97% = went up 97% in 12 months |
| **ATR** | Average True Range — how much the price bounces around daily | ATR = $3.94 means oil moves about $4/day on average |
| **VIX** | "Fear index" — how scared investors are | < 15 = calm, 15-25 = nervous, > 25 = scared, > 35 = panic |
| **RSI** | Overbought/oversold gauge (0-100) | > 70 = overbought (might drop), < 30 = oversold (might bounce) |
| **MACD** | Two moving average lines crossing — buy signal when one crosses above the other | MACD crossover = "lines just crossed up, trend is changing" |
| **Bollinger Bands** | A channel around the price. When it squeezes, a breakout is coming | Squeeze + price breaks above = buy signal |
| **Support** | A price floor where it kept bouncing in the past | "Support at $40" = it's bounced off $40 three times before |
| **Resistance** | A price ceiling where it kept failing in the past | "Resistance at $50" = it's hit $50 and dropped each time |
| Term | Definition | Example |
|---|---|---|
| **Entry price** | Price you bought at | USO entered @ $144.00 |
| **Stop loss** | Price you sell to limit losses | If USO drops to $140.06, we sell automatically |
| **Trailing stop** | Stop that moves up as price goes up | USO goes to $150, stop moves to $142. Never moves down |
| **Position size** | How many shares you buy | 6 shares USO = $864 total |
| **Volatility scaling** | Buy less when price is jumpy, buy more when calm | USO is super jumpy (52% yearly vol), so we bought only 22% of normal size |
| **The spread** | The hidden cost of buying/selling | Crypto has big spreads (0.5% each way) |
| **Unrealized P&L** | Current profit/loss if you sold right now | +$0 = flat, -$6.82 = down $6.82 |
| **Realized P&L** | Actual profit/loss after you sell | Only counts when trade is closed |
| **Fee drag** | How much fees eat your profits | $39 in fees on a $100 trade = 39% fee drag (bad!) |
| Term | Definition | What the robots do |
|---|---|---|
| **Trending** | Market moving clearly in one direction | Robots go full speed |
| **Ranging** | Market going sideways | Robots get cautious (smaller bets) |
| **Volatile** | Market swinging wildly | Robots get even smaller, or pause |
Every day you'll get a message like this:
📊 TRADING SYSTEM DASHBOARD
Market: SPY $767.94 VIX: 15.4
Regime: volatile
[A] PURE MOMENTUM
Holding: USO entry $144.00 stop $140.06
Pick: USO (+97% 12m momentum)
[B] MOMENTUM + TA
Holding: SLV entry $59.90 stop $58.08
USO was BLOCKED: low volume breakout (0.44x avg)
[C] CHARTS ONLY
Holding: CPER entry $41.02 stop $40.44
CPER scored 5/10: MACD crossover + BB squeeze
COMBINED: All different picks — need data to sort outWhat to look for:
| Column | What it means | Good or bad? |
|---|---|---|
| **Holding** | What the robot owns right now | Just information |
| **Entry** | Price it bought at | Lower = better (bought cheap) |
| **Stop** | Price it will sell at if it drops | Getting higher = good (locking in gains) |
| **P&L** | Current profit/loss | Positive = nice, negative = not yet |
| **Blocked** | Why a robot didn't buy something | Good — means filters are working |
After every market day, the system saves a row to /opt/data/nexus/trading/data/daily_log.csv.
To open it: double-click the CSV or open in Excel/Google Sheets.
Each column:
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| `date` | Which day |
| `market_regime` | Was the market trending, ranging, or volatile? |
| `vix` | Fear level |
| `A_pick` | What Robot A would buy right now |
| `A_positions` | Does Robot A own anything? (1 = yes, 0 = no) |
| `A_entry_price` | What Robot A paid |
| `A_pnl_open` | Current profit/loss for Robot A |
| `B_pick` / `C_pick` | Same for B and C |
| `spy_price` | How the S&P 500 is doing (the overall market) |
| `btc_price` | Bitcoin price |
| `total_open_positions` | How many total things all 3 robots own |
Every Sunday at 5pm ET, the system grades itself:
=== WEEKLY COMPARISON ===
A: Pure Mom B: Mom+TA C: Charts Only
Win rate: 40% 50% 60%
Sharpe: 0.6 0.8 0.9
Avg trade: +$12 +$18 +$22 The winning robot gets more confidence. The losing robot gets studied.
| Don't worry about | Why |
|---|---|
| **Robot makes a bad trade** | That's learning data. We want to see bad trades to learn from them |
| **Market crashes** | Momentum robots go to cash when everything drops. That's their superpower |
| **Weird terminology** | This doc explains everything. Read one term per day |
| **Missing a day** | The robots run automatically. Data saves to CSV |
| **This runs forever** | $0.30 in stock fees on $10k paper. Costs nothing |
| Topic | What to search |
|---|---|
| Dual Momentum | Gary Antonacci "Dual Momentum" book |
| Time-series momentum | Moskowitz, Ooi, Pedersen 2012 paper |
| RSI | "RSI indicator explained" |
| MACD | "MACD indicator for beginners" |
| Bollinger Bands | "Bollinger Bands explained" |
| Support and resistance | "Support resistance trading basics" |
| VIX | "VIX fear index explained" |
"Progress over perfection. We're learning as we go."
— Your 3 robots